Future Scenarios
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/World Energy Council (IIASA/WEC) led a comprehensive study to analyze possible future global energy scenarios. This study is important because it has been largely used as reference in various international negotiations, for example, on climate change. Six scenarios were analyzed based on three alternative views of the future. Case A is called high growth and presents very ambitious rates of economic growth, that is, 2% per year in industrialized countries and twice as much in developing countries. Case B is the middle course and is based on a more pragmatic path with more moderate growth. Case C is ecologically driven. It is the most challenging and also the more optimistic when it comes to technology development, international cooperation, environmental protection and equity. Despite significant differences among the scenarios, they are all challenging given increasing population and demand for energy services, as well as sustainability requirements.
The results include both descriptive and normative scenarios and build on the assumption that no major discontinuities and catastrophes will take place. Bioenergy has a role to play in all scenarios, though of varying magnitudes. In scenario A1, bioenergy only accounts for some 10% of the total energy supply, and fossil fuels remain the major energy source throughout the century. In the so-called rich and green scenario, or scenario C1, biomass could account for almost 30% of the total amount of world energy in 2100 (see diagram, Nakicenovic 1998).
It is important to point out that biomass utilization in the IIASA/WEC scenarios differ from present conditions especially when it comes to technologies. In particular, significant changes in the way biomass is being utilized in many developing countries today will have to be accomplished. We are basically talking about going from traditional to modern and efficient technologies that can provide high-quality energy services, many of which require access to electricity (see also Fischer and Schrattenholzer 2001).
It is also important to remember that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts but possible ways in which the future can unfold following a set of assumptions. An important message of this study is that, although we will have to rely on fossil fuels for a few decades more, we can decide what energy future we want to have as we build new infrastructure in the coming years. The choices will be much more restricted after 2020 once major new investments are already in place.
Encyclopedia ID: p1157
